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Background and Aim: We aimed to develop a clinical prediction model for pulmonary thrombosis (PT) diagnosis in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Methods: Non-intensive care unit hospitalized COVID-19 patients who underwent a computed tomography pulmonary angiogram (CTPA) for suspected PT were included in the study. Demographic, clinical, analytical, and radiological variables as potential factors associated with the presence of PT were selected. Multivariable Cox regression analysis to develop a score for estimating the pre-test probability of PT was performed. The score was internally validated by bootstrap analysis. Results: Among the 271 patients who underwent a CTPA, 132 patients (48.7%) had PT. Heart rate >100 bpm (OR = 4.63 [95% CI: 2.30-9.34]; P < 0.001), respiratory rate >22 bpm (OR = 5.21 [95% CI: 2.00-13.54]; P < 0.001), RALE score ≥4 (OR = 3.24 [95% CI: 1.66-6.32]; P < 0.001), C-reactive protein (CRP) >100 mg/L (OR = 2.10 [95% CI: 0.95-4.63]; P = 0.067), and D-dimer >3.000 ng/mL (OR = 6.86 [95% CI: 3.54-13.28]; P < 0.001) at the time of suspected PT were independent predictors of thrombosis. Using these variables, we constructed a nomogram (CRP, Heart rate, D-dimer, RALE score, and respiratory rate [CHEDDAR score]) for estimating the pre-test probability of PT. The score showed a high predictive accuracy (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve = 0.877; 95% CI: 0.83-0.92). A score lower than 182 points on the nomogram confers a low probability for PT with a negative predictive value of 92%. Conclusions: CHEDDAR score can be used to estimate the pre-test probability of PT in hospitalized COVID-19 patients outside the intensive care unit. Relevance for Patients: Developing a new clinical prediction model for PT diagnosis in COVID-19 may help in the triage of patients, and limit unnecessary exposure to radiation and the risk of nephrotoxicity due to iodinated contrast.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Incidence of thrombotic events associated to Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is difficult to assess and reported rates differ significantly. Optimal thromboprophylaxis is unclear. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to analyze the characteristics of patients with a confirmed thrombotic complication including inflammatory and hemostatic parameters, compare patients affected by arterial vs venous events and examine differences between survivors and non-survivors. We reviewed compliance with thromboprophylaxis and explored how the implementation of a severity-adjusted protocol could have influenced outcome. METHODS: Single-cohort retrospective study of COVID-19 patients admitted, from March 3 to May 3 2020, to the Infanta Leonor University Hospital in Madrid, epicenter of the Spanish outbreak. RESULTS: Among 1127 patients, 80 thrombotic events were diagnosed in 69 patients (6.1% of the entire cohort). Forty-three patients (62%) suffered venous thromboembolism, 18 (26%) arterial episodes and 6 (9%) concurrent venous and arterial thrombosis. Most patients (90%) with a confirmed thrombotic complication where under low-molecular-weight heparin treatment. Overt disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) was rare. Initial ISTH DIC score and pre-event CRP were significantly higher among non-survivors. In multivariate analysis, arterial localization was an independent predictor of mortality (OR = 18, 95% CI: 2.4-142, p < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Despite quasi-universal thromboprophylaxis, COVID-19 lead to a myriad of arterial and venous thrombotic events. Considering the subgroup of patients with thrombotic episodes, arterial events appeared earlier in the course of disease and conferred very poor prognosis, and an ISTH DIC score ≥ 3 at presentation was identified as a potential predictor of mortality. Severity-adjusted thromboprophylaxis seemed to decrease the number of events and could have influenced mortality. Randomized controlled trials are eagerly awaited.